SERETIS NOTES

  A former NATO commander warns that Donald Trump faces humiliation in his war with Iran, as he claims the US president has been left with just two options in the conflict, which has now entered its fourth week. "Trump faces two choices: he either doubles down, escalates, and launches an operation to topple the regime. And you're not going to do that without an extraordinary, massive land force marching on Tehran, which I think is inconcivable," General Sir Richard Shirreff, former NATO Deputy Supreme Forces Commander Allied Forces Europe, told the BBC.

  The U.S. worldwide caution alert is now active, and it is not just another routine advisory. So what does this actually mean for Americans traveling right now? The alert, issued by the U.S. Department of State on March 22, 2026, is a global warning urging travelers to stay alert due to rising tensions and potential security threats. This is not limited to one country. It applies worldwide. Right now, officials are especially focused on regions like the Middle East, where instability and conflict risks are higher. But the message is broader than that. No location is being treated as completely risk free. The concern comes from a mix of factors, including geopolitical tensions, possible retaliatory actions, and recent incidents involving U.S. diplomatic sites.

  Five European countries and Japan announced Thursday that they are ready to assist with reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid the war with Iran. The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issued a  joint statemen t, saying: "We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces. So if the Iranian navy was decimated by the US and Israel,  why would the Straight of Hormus be shut by Iran and why can't the US or Israel just blow up whatever is blocking it,

  Iran’s national women’s soccer team has returned to the Islamic Republic after several of the players sought asylum in Australia, Iranian media reported Wednesday. The outlets shared footage of the players entering Iran after landing in Turkey and taking a bus to the border. They were greeted by some officials at the border. I feel so sorry for these women.  The Iranian regime will lock them up, or even torture them.  I am sure their familied where threatened

  Iran's newly appointed supreme leader is reported to have gone to Moscow for leg surgery, which was "personally offered by Putin," after being injured in airstrikes. It is thought that Mojtaba Khamenei was hurt during the first U.S.-Israeli attacks on Tehran on February 28. This comes after Donald Trump speculated that the new leader might have passed away, as he has not been seen publicly since his appointment. How could this guy slip away from the Mossad and US inteligence?

  The apparent lack of broad European support for the U.S. strikes on Iran signals the continent could be approaching a turning point by deciding whether it will maintain economic dependence on Washington or Beijing — or take matters into its own hands. The tension comes as U.S. allies in Europe seek out China to discuss possible de-escalation in the Middle East while rejecting logistical requests from Washington, due in part to the United States’ recent foreign policy decisions.

  A magnitude 4.1 earthquake in southern Iran has reignited online speculation that Tehran may be conducting underground nuclear weapons tests, with some commentators drawing a direct line between the tremor and a potential strike capability aimed at the United States. The seismic event, recorded by the U.S. Geological Survey, occurred in a tectonically active zone where earthquakes of this size are routine. But the collision of a real tremor with Iran’s ongoing refusal to grant international inspectors access to its nuclear facilities has created fertile ground for fear and misinformation, raising the question of whether natural geology is being weaponized as a geopolitical talking point.

  China announced its largest defense budget yet Thursday as it presses forward with its goal of becoming the dominant military force in the West Pacific. The draft budget was released by China‘s Ministry of Finance as the Communist Party leadership’s top legislative body, the National People’s Congress, began its annual meeting to approve the country’s priorities for the coming year.

  Iranian warplanes were just two minutes away from bombing an American base holding 10,000 troops before Qatari jets struck them down, a new report has claimed.  According to sources from  CNN ,  Iran  sent two Soviet-era Su-24 tactical bombers toward al-Udeid Air Base on Monday morning, as well as Ras Laffan, a key natural gas processing facility. The al-Udeid base is the largest American base in the Middle East. It ordinarily hosts up to 10,000 soldiers, and is home to the US Central Command, the US Air Force's Central Command and the  RAF 's 83rd Expeditionary Air Group.  A source told CNN that the Iranian planes were seen 'carrying bombs and guided munitions'. They are said to have been flying at an altitude of just 80ft to avoid radar detection. After the Qataris radioed the planes and received no response, they scrambled an F-15 fighter jet that downed the two planes. 

  Fans of President D onald Trump's   MAGA movement celebrated on Tuesday after a Texas Republican lost his primary race. Rep.  Dan Crenshaw  (R-TX) lost his primary race to state Rep. Steve Toth by a double-digit margin on Tuesday. Toth was supported by Sen.  Ted Cruz  (R-TX) and the Trump-aligned Turning Point Action, according to The Texas Tribune. Trump had refused to endorse Crenshaw's re-election after the lawmaker failed to go along with Trump's lie that he won the 2020 general election.

  Energy stocks were falling early Wednesday after a report suggested Iranian intelligence officials had contacted American counterparts about discussing terms for ending the conflict. Exxon Mobil and Chevron gave up early gains to trade down around 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively, while Occidental Petroleum was down 0.1%