SERETIS NOTES

  Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, the majority of direct conflict has occurred within Ukraine. However, the ramifications of this war extend well beyond the immediate combat zones. With major international players such as China, North Korea, the European Union, and the United States escalating their involvement, the situation has become markedly more complex. This deepening global engagement has clouded the conflict's trajectory, rendering its future outcomes increasingly unpredictable.  There is no end in sight for this war, short of a limited nuclear stricke.

  Ukraine carried out another large-scale drone and missile attack against Russia overnight into Monday, July 13, hitting targets throughout the country. Strikes were reported in the Moscow region and in Russia’s southern regions, proving that Kyiv’s ongoing long-range strike strategy is working as intended. Ukraine is showing that Russia is just a paper tiger with conventional weapons.

  Strong financial markets fueled enormous gains in wealth last year, as the rich got richer by even bigger margins, according to the annual UBS Global Wealth Report published on Tuesday. Global personal wealth jumped 10.8% in 2025, topping gains of 4.6% a year earlier and 4.3% in 2023, and the number of millionaires in U.S. dollar terms rose by one million individuals, expanding in every market tracked by UBS. It was the fastest rate of growth in wealth since 2017.

  With Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has quietly become the world's oil safety net — sending record amounts of crude to Asia to replace supplies that can't pass through. It's a strong display of U.S. energy power, and it is helping prevent the crisis from worsening. But there's a complication in the data: a large share of that oil is being drawn directly from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the country's emergency stockpile. The U.S. can continue to plug the gap — but only for a limited time.

  Military planners, diplomats and defence chiefs are heading into one of Asia’s most important security summits under a growing shadow: fears that a future conflict over Taiwan could spiral far beyond conventional warfare. According to Reuters , Fresh analysis released ahead of this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore warns that a military clash between the United States and China carries a genuine risk of nuclear escalation.