SERETIS NOTES

China is on Trumps mind   Later this month, President Donald Trump will meet with China's Xi Jinping in Washington. Earlier this summer, Trump met with European leaders at a NATO summit in Turkey . You can guess which one occupied more of the president's attention. China isn’t America’s only concern in 2026, of course. The Trump administration’s latest National Security Strategy addressed everything from the Western Hemisphere to Israel to, yes, America's European allies. But more than any other global dynamic, the U.S. rivalry with China has come to define both Trump’s policies and the United States’s global outlook.

  GOP leaders are betting the House on President Trump in this year’s elections. The midterm cycle is always a referendum on the sitting president, whether members of his party like it or not. And if there was a clear message from the Republicans’ midterm convention in Dallas, it’s that GOP leaders have embraced that reality with zeal, leaning heavily on Trump to animate their base and stave off a blue wave.

  Asian equities, U.S. and European futures sink into the red after the Dow falls over 400 points. Bond yields erase the "Bessent" moves as the 10-year returns to highs not seen since January 2025. Oil drives higher, with WTI above $90 and Brent above $95 a barrel. President Trump claims "almost total control of the Hormuz Strait" as Iran targets U.S. military assets in the Gulf. China dissents from the G20 statement, opposing the wording of "cheap exports." In corporate news, VW is set to be pushed out of the Euro Stoxx 50 and replaced by Nokia

  Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, the majority of direct conflict has occurred within Ukraine. However, the ramifications of this war extend well beyond the immediate combat zones. With major international players such as China, North Korea, the European Union, and the United States escalating their involvement, the situation has become markedly more complex. This deepening global engagement has clouded the conflict's trajectory, rendering its future outcomes increasingly unpredictable.  There is no end in sight for this war, short of a limited nuclear stricke.

  Ukraine carried out another large-scale drone and missile attack against Russia overnight into Monday, July 13, hitting targets throughout the country. Strikes were reported in the Moscow region and in Russia’s southern regions, proving that Kyiv’s ongoing long-range strike strategy is working as intended. Ukraine is showing that Russia is just a paper tiger with conventional weapons.