SERETIS NOTES

  The apparent lack of broad European support for the U.S. strikes on Iran signals the continent could be approaching a turning point by deciding whether it will maintain economic dependence on Washington or Beijing — or take matters into its own hands. The tension comes as U.S. allies in Europe seek out China to discuss possible de-escalation in the Middle East while rejecting logistical requests from Washington, due in part to the United States’ recent foreign policy decisions.

  A magnitude 4.1 earthquake in southern Iran has reignited online speculation that Tehran may be conducting underground nuclear weapons tests, with some commentators drawing a direct line between the tremor and a potential strike capability aimed at the United States. The seismic event, recorded by the U.S. Geological Survey, occurred in a tectonically active zone where earthquakes of this size are routine. But the collision of a real tremor with Iran’s ongoing refusal to grant international inspectors access to its nuclear facilities has created fertile ground for fear and misinformation, raising the question of whether natural geology is being weaponized as a geopolitical talking point.

  China announced its largest defense budget yet Thursday as it presses forward with its goal of becoming the dominant military force in the West Pacific. The draft budget was released by China‘s Ministry of Finance as the Communist Party leadership’s top legislative body, the National People’s Congress, began its annual meeting to approve the country’s priorities for the coming year.

  Iranian warplanes were just two minutes away from bombing an American base holding 10,000 troops before Qatari jets struck them down, a new report has claimed.  According to sources from  CNN ,  Iran  sent two Soviet-era Su-24 tactical bombers toward al-Udeid Air Base on Monday morning, as well as Ras Laffan, a key natural gas processing facility. The al-Udeid base is the largest American base in the Middle East. It ordinarily hosts up to 10,000 soldiers, and is home to the US Central Command, the US Air Force's Central Command and the  RAF 's 83rd Expeditionary Air Group.  A source told CNN that the Iranian planes were seen 'carrying bombs and guided munitions'. They are said to have been flying at an altitude of just 80ft to avoid radar detection. After the Qataris radioed the planes and received no response, they scrambled an F-15 fighter jet that downed the two planes. 

  Fans of President D onald Trump's   MAGA movement celebrated on Tuesday after a Texas Republican lost his primary race. Rep.  Dan Crenshaw  (R-TX) lost his primary race to state Rep. Steve Toth by a double-digit margin on Tuesday. Toth was supported by Sen.  Ted Cruz  (R-TX) and the Trump-aligned Turning Point Action, according to The Texas Tribune. Trump had refused to endorse Crenshaw's re-election after the lawmaker failed to go along with Trump's lie that he won the 2020 general election.

  Energy stocks were falling early Wednesday after a report suggested Iranian intelligence officials had contacted American counterparts about discussing terms for ending the conflict. Exxon Mobil and Chevron gave up early gains to trade down around 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively, while Occidental Petroleum was down 0.1%