SERETIS NOTES

  Ukraine struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region early on Friday, ending a two-week pause in refinery attacks that came amid heavy pressure from the Trump administration to halt such operations. Photos and video footage posted on social media showed columns of smoke rising into the sky over the Novokuibyshevsk refinery. Ukrainian forces last hit an oil refinery on Oct. 15, and had not struck Russian oil infrastructure of any kind since Oct. 20. The pause took place against a background of repeated demands by Trump and other U.S. officials to stop hitting refineries. Trump has publicly blamed Ukraine’s strikes for high global fuel prices. 

  Israel’s election deadlock has dashed hopes in Washington for a quick reset of the US-Israeli relationship, which has come under pressure during Benjamin Netanyahu ’s tenure. With all votes counted by Friday morning, neither the coalition led by Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party nor opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and its bloc won enough seats for a majority in the 120-seat parliament. At the final count, Mr Netanyahu’s bloc had 53 seats, Mr Eisenkot’s had 48 and the Arab parties had 19. The results set the stage for a long process of factions trying to form a governing coalition. If neither succeeds, Israel could head into another round of elections. Despite vociferous support from Donald Trump for Mr Netanyahu, factions within the administration and both parties in Congress had hoped the Israeli opposition would prevail and begin to undo years of worsening relations they attributed to the prime minister.

  Move over Donald Trump, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff; First Lady Melania Trump is taking credit for brokering a “localized” peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The first lady’s office announced that she has secured a ceasefire in Oleshky, a city in southern Ukraine. Both sides have agreed to temporarily halt all military action there to allow humanitarian aid into the area and let people evacuate safely through a designated passageway. The deal comes as the president and top administration officials have been working to lock in a broader peace deal between the two countries that have been at war since Russia invaded Ukraine more than four and a half years ago. Trump has long argued that he initially thought the conflict would be easy to resolve, but so far it has proven beyond him

  U.S. intelligence has warned that Iran has significantly escalated efforts to assassinate American diplomats and government officials overseas, with some plots reaching advanced stages, according to a memo obtained by Axios. The warning, contained in a Friday memorandum to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, comes as the Trump administration has reduced staff at several American embassies across the Middle East amid fears of Iranian retaliation and a possible resumption of major U.S. military operations against Tehran.

  President Donald Trump's approval rating reached a new low in the Wall Street Journal's polling , marking the lowest approval for an incumbent president heading into the midterm elections among the outlet's decades of surveys. The poll, released over the weekend, found Trump’s approval rating at 37%, the lowest for a president leading into the midterms since the Wall Street Journal began polling in 1990, when former President George H.W. Bush was in office. Trump’s lower approval rating comes as Americans continue to express deep disapproval of the economy and the president’s role in it. According to the latest poll, 65% said the economy was not strong, and 60% said that Trump’s policies have made the economy worse.

  Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin looked to struggle as he explained why Russia is reconsidering negotiations with Ukraine following a major strike on Moscow. The 73-year-old leader appeared confused as he addressed state media in St. Petersburg in the aftermath of Kyiv's biggest ever drone strike on the Russian capital last weekend. The mighty Russian bear has been exposed as a paper Tiger