SERETIS NOTES

  Military planners, diplomats and defence chiefs are heading into one of Asia’s most important security summits under a growing shadow: fears that a future conflict over Taiwan could spiral far beyond conventional warfare. According to Reuters , Fresh analysis released ahead of this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore warns that a military clash between the United States and China carries a genuine risk of nuclear escalation.

Economic divide widens: Fed data shows more low-income Americans skipping meals and draining savings, while higher earners benefit from asset gains and strong spending. Corporate warning signs: McDonald's CEO says conditions for low-income consumers are worsening, prompting menu strategies for both budget-conscious and affluent customers. Global cost pressures: Rising energy prices, war-related disruptions, and higher food costs are fueling inflation, with UK retail data showing similar persistent pressures.

A senior Trump administration official privately notified Iran on Sunday about an upcoming U.S. mission to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz and cautioned Tehran against taking action, according to a U.S. official and an informed source. Why it matters: The confidential notice indicates the White House sought to reduce the chance of escalation. Nevertheless, after the warning, Iranian forces carried out multiple attacks targeting U.S. Navy ships, commercial vessels, and assets belonging to the United Arab Emirates.