SERETIS NOTES

  Asian equities, U.S. and European futures sink into the red after the Dow falls over 400 points. Bond yields erase the "Bessent" moves as the 10-year returns to highs not seen since January 2025. Oil drives higher, with WTI above $90 and Brent above $95 a barrel. President Trump claims "almost total control of the Hormuz Strait" as Iran targets U.S. military assets in the Gulf. China dissents from the G20 statement, opposing the wording of "cheap exports." In corporate news, VW is set to be pushed out of the Euro Stoxx 50 and replaced by Nokia

  Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, the majority of direct conflict has occurred within Ukraine. However, the ramifications of this war extend well beyond the immediate combat zones. With major international players such as China, North Korea, the European Union, and the United States escalating their involvement, the situation has become markedly more complex. This deepening global engagement has clouded the conflict's trajectory, rendering its future outcomes increasingly unpredictable.  There is no end in sight for this war, short of a limited nuclear stricke.

  Ukraine carried out another large-scale drone and missile attack against Russia overnight into Monday, July 13, hitting targets throughout the country. Strikes were reported in the Moscow region and in Russia’s southern regions, proving that Kyiv’s ongoing long-range strike strategy is working as intended. Ukraine is showing that Russia is just a paper tiger with conventional weapons.

  Strong financial markets fueled enormous gains in wealth last year, as the rich got richer by even bigger margins, according to the annual UBS Global Wealth Report published on Tuesday. Global personal wealth jumped 10.8% in 2025, topping gains of 4.6% a year earlier and 4.3% in 2023, and the number of millionaires in U.S. dollar terms rose by one million individuals, expanding in every market tracked by UBS. It was the fastest rate of growth in wealth since 2017.

  With Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has quietly become the world's oil safety net — sending record amounts of crude to Asia to replace supplies that can't pass through. It's a strong display of U.S. energy power, and it is helping prevent the crisis from worsening. But there's a complication in the data: a large share of that oil is being drawn directly from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the country's emergency stockpile. The U.S. can continue to plug the gap — but only for a limited time.

  Military planners, diplomats and defence chiefs are heading into one of Asia’s most important security summits under a growing shadow: fears that a future conflict over Taiwan could spiral far beyond conventional warfare. According to Reuters , Fresh analysis released ahead of this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore warns that a military clash between the United States and China carries a genuine risk of nuclear escalation.

Economic divide widens: Fed data shows more low-income Americans skipping meals and draining savings, while higher earners benefit from asset gains and strong spending. Corporate warning signs: McDonald's CEO says conditions for low-income consumers are worsening, prompting menu strategies for both budget-conscious and affluent customers. Global cost pressures: Rising energy prices, war-related disruptions, and higher food costs are fueling inflation, with UK retail data showing similar persistent pressures.

A senior Trump administration official privately notified Iran on Sunday about an upcoming U.S. mission to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz and cautioned Tehran against taking action, according to a U.S. official and an informed source. Why it matters: The confidential notice indicates the White House sought to reduce the chance of escalation. Nevertheless, after the warning, Iranian forces carried out multiple attacks targeting U.S. Navy ships, commercial vessels, and assets belonging to the United Arab Emirates.

  Federal taxes are due on April 15, but a growing number of Americans are refusing to pay as an act of resistance against President Donald Trump’s administration. Attorney Rachel Cohen is one of them. Cohen is an organizer who has been pepper-sprayed and tear-gassed for protesting Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s violent deportations. This year, she decided she needed to withhold payment of her federal tax dollars as another form of protest.

  Iran has claimed it is readying more than one million fighters to unleash "hell" on American troops if the US launches a ground invasion of the Middle Eastern country. Citing a military source, the state-run Tasnim News Agency reported that regime fighters are growing increasingly eager to create a "a historic hell for the Americans on Iranian soil". These people are barbaric and uncivilized, They have no fear of dying and they will be a huge problem for US soldiers

  Donald Trump is alleged to have "lost his mind" after he was accused of lying to people's faces. President Trump has been the centre of attention since it was confirmed the U.S. military is working with Israel to try and topple Iran's current regime. Now he has come under fire again after it was claimed he was caught off guard by a reporter.

  China  is preparing for war. The evidence is   abundant , from building underground hospitals to   hoarding  grain and fuel,   hardening   air bases in the Pacific, and   constructing   a military command center ten times larger than the Pentagon.  For years,  Beijing  has been engaged in the largest military buildup in modern history. The Chinese Communist Party is girding for war with its sole competitor, the United States. Beijing seeks to supplant Washington as the world’s sole superpower, and it is willing to use every tool at its disposal, including deception, to achieve that objective.

 With Donald Trump's five-day deadline for peace talks ending on Friday, and amid rising speculation of a US ground invasion in Iran's Kharg Island, Tehran has threatened to open a new front in the war by blocking the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Iran has now shifted its focus to the Bab el-Mandeb, the gateway to the Red Sea, which carries 12% of global crude oil shipments. If this strait is also disrupted, the global energy market will face another major hit.  Iran is well aware that its chokehold on Hormuz, through which 20% of the global energy passes, gives it significant leverage in the war. Trump knows he can't end the war until he breaks that chokehold. While Trump has signalled a willingness to de-escalate the conflict, plans are afoot to put boots on the ground to occupy Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen Hormuz.

  A former NATO commander warns that Donald Trump faces humiliation in his war with Iran, as he claims the US president has been left with just two options in the conflict, which has now entered its fourth week. "Trump faces two choices: he either doubles down, escalates, and launches an operation to topple the regime. And you're not going to do that without an extraordinary, massive land force marching on Tehran, which I think is inconcivable," General Sir Richard Shirreff, former NATO Deputy Supreme Forces Commander Allied Forces Europe, told the BBC.

  The U.S. worldwide caution alert is now active, and it is not just another routine advisory. So what does this actually mean for Americans traveling right now? The alert, issued by the U.S. Department of State on March 22, 2026, is a global warning urging travelers to stay alert due to rising tensions and potential security threats. This is not limited to one country. It applies worldwide. Right now, officials are especially focused on regions like the Middle East, where instability and conflict risks are higher. But the message is broader than that. No location is being treated as completely risk free. The concern comes from a mix of factors, including geopolitical tensions, possible retaliatory actions, and recent incidents involving U.S. diplomatic sites.

  Five European countries and Japan announced Thursday that they are ready to assist with reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid the war with Iran. The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issued a  joint statemen t, saying: "We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces. So if the Iranian navy was decimated by the US and Israel,  why would the Straight of Hormus be shut by Iran and why can't the US or Israel just blow up whatever is blocking it,

  Iran’s national women’s soccer team has returned to the Islamic Republic after several of the players sought asylum in Australia, Iranian media reported Wednesday. The outlets shared footage of the players entering Iran after landing in Turkey and taking a bus to the border. They were greeted by some officials at the border. I feel so sorry for these women.  The Iranian regime will lock them up, or even torture them.  I am sure their familied where threatened

  Iran's newly appointed supreme leader is reported to have gone to Moscow for leg surgery, which was "personally offered by Putin," after being injured in airstrikes. It is thought that Mojtaba Khamenei was hurt during the first U.S.-Israeli attacks on Tehran on February 28. This comes after Donald Trump speculated that the new leader might have passed away, as he has not been seen publicly since his appointment. How could this guy slip away from the Mossad and US inteligence?

  The apparent lack of broad European support for the U.S. strikes on Iran signals the continent could be approaching a turning point by deciding whether it will maintain economic dependence on Washington or Beijing — or take matters into its own hands. The tension comes as U.S. allies in Europe seek out China to discuss possible de-escalation in the Middle East while rejecting logistical requests from Washington, due in part to the United States’ recent foreign policy decisions.