SERETIS NOTES

  Move over Donald Trump, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff; First Lady Melania Trump is taking credit for brokering a “localized” peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The first lady’s office announced that she has secured a ceasefire in Oleshky, a city in southern Ukraine. Both sides have agreed to temporarily halt all military action there to allow humanitarian aid into the area and let people evacuate safely through a designated passageway. The deal comes as the president and top administration officials have been working to lock in a broader peace deal between the two countries that have been at war since Russia invaded Ukraine more than four and a half years ago. Trump has long argued that he initially thought the conflict would be easy to resolve, but so far it has proven beyond him

  U.S. intelligence has warned that Iran has significantly escalated efforts to assassinate American diplomats and government officials overseas, with some plots reaching advanced stages, according to a memo obtained by Axios. The warning, contained in a Friday memorandum to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, comes as the Trump administration has reduced staff at several American embassies across the Middle East amid fears of Iranian retaliation and a possible resumption of major U.S. military operations against Tehran.

  President Donald Trump's approval rating reached a new low in the Wall Street Journal's polling , marking the lowest approval for an incumbent president heading into the midterm elections among the outlet's decades of surveys. The poll, released over the weekend, found Trump’s approval rating at 37%, the lowest for a president leading into the midterms since the Wall Street Journal began polling in 1990, when former President George H.W. Bush was in office. Trump’s lower approval rating comes as Americans continue to express deep disapproval of the economy and the president’s role in it. According to the latest poll, 65% said the economy was not strong, and 60% said that Trump’s policies have made the economy worse.

  Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin looked to struggle as he explained why Russia is reconsidering negotiations with Ukraine following a major strike on Moscow. The 73-year-old leader appeared confused as he addressed state media in St. Petersburg in the aftermath of Kyiv's biggest ever drone strike on the Russian capital last weekend. The mighty Russian bear has been exposed as a paper Tiger

 So the United States is now caving in to these backwards ass camel humping mutants for help? Washington officials met with Houthi officials, who told them that they won't target U.S. or Israeli ships, according to a new report. Reuters detailed that the meeting took place at the U.S. Embassy in Oman, and that Muscat helped organize the meeting. It went on to note that Washington has held negotiations with the group despite designating it as a "foreign terrorist organization" in march 2025. ymping mutants

China is on Trumps mind   Later this month, President Donald Trump will meet with China's Xi Jinping in Washington. Earlier this summer, Trump met with European leaders at a NATO summit in Turkey . You can guess which one occupied more of the president's attention. China isn’t America’s only concern in 2026, of course. The Trump administration’s latest National Security Strategy addressed everything from the Western Hemisphere to Israel to, yes, America's European allies. But more than any other global dynamic, the U.S. rivalry with China has come to define both Trump’s policies and the United States’s global outlook.

  GOP leaders are betting the House on President Trump in this year’s elections. The midterm cycle is always a referendum on the sitting president, whether members of his party like it or not. And if there was a clear message from the Republicans’ midterm convention in Dallas, it’s that GOP leaders have embraced that reality with zeal, leaning heavily on Trump to animate their base and stave off a blue wave.

  Asian equities, U.S. and European futures sink into the red after the Dow falls over 400 points. Bond yields erase the "Bessent" moves as the 10-year returns to highs not seen since January 2025. Oil drives higher, with WTI above $90 and Brent above $95 a barrel. President Trump claims "almost total control of the Hormuz Strait" as Iran targets U.S. military assets in the Gulf. China dissents from the G20 statement, opposing the wording of "cheap exports." In corporate news, VW is set to be pushed out of the Euro Stoxx 50 and replaced by Nokia

  Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, the majority of direct conflict has occurred within Ukraine. However, the ramifications of this war extend well beyond the immediate combat zones. With major international players such as China, North Korea, the European Union, and the United States escalating their involvement, the situation has become markedly more complex. This deepening global engagement has clouded the conflict's trajectory, rendering its future outcomes increasingly unpredictable.  There is no end in sight for this war, short of a limited nuclear stricke.

  Ukraine carried out another large-scale drone and missile attack against Russia overnight into Monday, July 13, hitting targets throughout the country. Strikes were reported in the Moscow region and in Russia’s southern regions, proving that Kyiv’s ongoing long-range strike strategy is working as intended. Ukraine is showing that Russia is just a paper tiger with conventional weapons.

  Strong financial markets fueled enormous gains in wealth last year, as the rich got richer by even bigger margins, according to the annual UBS Global Wealth Report published on Tuesday. Global personal wealth jumped 10.8% in 2025, topping gains of 4.6% a year earlier and 4.3% in 2023, and the number of millionaires in U.S. dollar terms rose by one million individuals, expanding in every market tracked by UBS. It was the fastest rate of growth in wealth since 2017.

  With Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has quietly become the world's oil safety net — sending record amounts of crude to Asia to replace supplies that can't pass through. It's a strong display of U.S. energy power, and it is helping prevent the crisis from worsening. But there's a complication in the data: a large share of that oil is being drawn directly from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the country's emergency stockpile. The U.S. can continue to plug the gap — but only for a limited time.

  Military planners, diplomats and defence chiefs are heading into one of Asia’s most important security summits under a growing shadow: fears that a future conflict over Taiwan could spiral far beyond conventional warfare. According to Reuters , Fresh analysis released ahead of this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore warns that a military clash between the United States and China carries a genuine risk of nuclear escalation.

Economic divide widens: Fed data shows more low-income Americans skipping meals and draining savings, while higher earners benefit from asset gains and strong spending. Corporate warning signs: McDonald's CEO says conditions for low-income consumers are worsening, prompting menu strategies for both budget-conscious and affluent customers. Global cost pressures: Rising energy prices, war-related disruptions, and higher food costs are fueling inflation, with UK retail data showing similar persistent pressures.

A senior Trump administration official privately notified Iran on Sunday about an upcoming U.S. mission to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz and cautioned Tehran against taking action, according to a U.S. official and an informed source. Why it matters: The confidential notice indicates the White House sought to reduce the chance of escalation. Nevertheless, after the warning, Iranian forces carried out multiple attacks targeting U.S. Navy ships, commercial vessels, and assets belonging to the United Arab Emirates.

  Federal taxes are due on April 15, but a growing number of Americans are refusing to pay as an act of resistance against President Donald Trump’s administration. Attorney Rachel Cohen is one of them. Cohen is an organizer who has been pepper-sprayed and tear-gassed for protesting Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s violent deportations. This year, she decided she needed to withhold payment of her federal tax dollars as another form of protest.

  Iran has claimed it is readying more than one million fighters to unleash "hell" on American troops if the US launches a ground invasion of the Middle Eastern country. Citing a military source, the state-run Tasnim News Agency reported that regime fighters are growing increasingly eager to create a "a historic hell for the Americans on Iranian soil". These people are barbaric and uncivilized, They have no fear of dying and they will be a huge problem for US soldiers

  Donald Trump is alleged to have "lost his mind" after he was accused of lying to people's faces. President Trump has been the centre of attention since it was confirmed the U.S. military is working with Israel to try and topple Iran's current regime. Now he has come under fire again after it was claimed he was caught off guard by a reporter.

  China  is preparing for war. The evidence is   abundant , from building underground hospitals to   hoarding  grain and fuel,   hardening   air bases in the Pacific, and   constructing   a military command center ten times larger than the Pentagon.  For years,  Beijing  has been engaged in the largest military buildup in modern history. The Chinese Communist Party is girding for war with its sole competitor, the United States. Beijing seeks to supplant Washington as the world’s sole superpower, and it is willing to use every tool at its disposal, including deception, to achieve that objective.