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Hormuz

 With Donald Trump's five-day deadline for peace talks ending on Friday, and amid rising speculation of a US ground invasion in Iran's Kharg Island, Tehran has threatened to open a new front in the war by blocking the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Iran has now shifted its focus to the Bab el-Mandeb, the gateway to the Red Sea, which carries 12% of global crude oil shipments. If this strait is also disrupted, the global energy market will face another major hit. Iran is well aware that its chokehold on Hormuz, through which 20% of the global energy passes, gives it significant leverage in the war. Trump knows he can't end the war until he breaks that chokehold. While Trump has signalled a willingness to de-escalate the conflict, plans are afoot to put boots on the ground to occupy Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen Hormuz.

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